According to the Suez Canal Authority, there are 321 vessels waiting to pass through the canal. A number of liner companies have issued notices or customer notifications, indicating that they are closely following the latest development of the Suez Canal closure incident and are also considering alternatives.

Among them, Maersk, the world's largest container transport company, said that it has diverted 14 container ships to southern Africa, and it is expected that the number of vessels diverted will increase.

Rescue operation blocked

Recently, the ever given, stranded on the Suez Canal, has attracted worldwide attention.

During the rescue operations in the past few days, the rescue team first used excavators to dig on the bank to help the bow of the cargo ship which was out of control and inserted into the canal embankment to get out of trouble, and cooperated with several tugboats in the north and south directions to push the "Changci" northward. However, due to its huge size and heavy draught, the Suez Canal Authority dispatched sand dredgers on the 25th to pump sand under the troubled bow day and night.

By the morning of the 26th, the dredger had cleared about 17000 cubic meters of sand from around the bow of the stranded ship, accounting for 87% of the target. But then came the news that efforts to use tugs to turn the stranded cargo ship in the right direction had not been successful. To this end, the rescue team changed the plan and planned to reduce the draft of the cargo ship by pumping water from the inside of the cargo ship, so as to make the ship float as soon as possible.

Although there is no obvious progress in the excavation, the rescue team expects that the flood tide of Suez Canal on March 27 will bring enough buoyancy for the cargo ships to get out of trouble. Therefore, from the evening of March 25, the expert team has also carried out weight reduction assessment and started to unload the excess weight of the cargo ships.

On the night of March 27, the Suez Canal Authority said that the stern of the stranded vessel began to move before the operation stopped last night. Strong tides and strong winds made it more difficult to rescue the stranded vessel. At present, 9000 tons of ballast water has been removed from the stranded cargo ship.

According to the Suez Canal Authority, 321 vessels have been waiting to cross the canal after the cargo ship ran aground. Analysts believe that if the canal can not be opened as soon as possible, it may have a significant impact on the global shipping market, adding "new worries" to the shipping industry, which is already facing a shortage of transport capacity.

Shipping price and global oil price soaring

Affected by this, the freight rate of Cape of good hope ships has been rising. Some ship owners said that if the rescue work lasts for a long time, it may affect the freight rates of all segments. The freight rate of long-distance product tankers in the Asia Pacific region has risen to the peak in 2021, which is likely to rise again due to the accident.

According to foreign media reports, the blockage of the Suez Canal has blocked the passage of nearly 10 billion US dollars of goods, leading to soaring sea freight prices. For example, the price of a 40 foot container from China to Europe has risen to nearly 8000 US dollars (52328 yuan), nearly three times more than a year ago, due to the stranding of a cargo ship.

International oil prices also fluctuated sharply for four days. On Friday, they both rose by more than 3%. The WTI of American oil once exceeded $61, and the international Brent oil price returned to above $64.

Suez Canal blockage continues! Shipping price and global oil price soaring

As for the international crude oil supply concerned by the market, industry insiders pointed out that the freight of Suez Canal is relatively high, and the crude oil transportation from the Persian Gulf to Europe by sea often chooses to sail around the Cape of good hope. Therefore, the impact of Suez Canal blockage on global crude oil shipping trade is relatively limited.

Baosheng Bank of Switzerland believes that most of the "noise" brought to the crude oil market by the grounding of the Suez Canal freighter will not have a sustained impact on the fundamentals.

Aluminum price also affected

Industrial base metals are also being affected, especially aluminum prices. On Friday, LME aluminum closed up 1.22% at $2273.5 per ton, breaking through $2300 in the session and reaching a new high of more than two and a half years.

Suez Canal blockage continues! Shipping price and global oil price soaring

Analysts said this was mainly in the context of surging demand for aluminum, the Suez Canal blockage exacerbated supply concerns, "the canal blockage is threatening a rare global shortage of aluminum products crucial to the transportation and construction industry."

Kamil wlazly, a senior metals analyst at wood Mackenzie, a consultancy, points out that things are getting a bit crazy and that the Suez Canal crisis may worsen the situation. With the increase of production in Europe and the United States and buyers replenishing inventory in advance, the supply of aluminum billet is shrinking rapidly.

Research Institute: Harbor Aluminum also said that at present, as many as three ships carrying 25000 to 75000 metric tons to the United States have been blocked, which may increase the overall price of special aluminum by another 2%, or increase the transportation cost of aluminum to near the highest level in history. "It's not a big deal to delay the transportation of 75000 tons for a week or two at ordinary times. Now all ships are affected, which increases the bullish psychology."

Shipping stocks rebound

According to the Securities Research Report released by China CITIC construction investment, the temporary closure of the Suez canal may cause huge fluctuations in the shipping freight market. The central European line freight rate of the centralized transport plate may be pushed up.

According to the analysis of the report, assuming that there are 11 ships deployed on the Asia Europe route every week, it will take about one more week for one-way sailing at 17 knots (the average speed of the industry is 13 knots) due to sailing around Africa. If congestion continues, the two-way sailing time will increase by two weeks. At present, there are about 27 voyages per week on the European line, which requires about 297 ships. 13 ships are required to maintain weekly shifts for continuous congestion. Those 297 ships can only operate about 23 voyages per week, and the weekly capacity will be reduced by about 15%.

Even if the Suez Canal congestion is solved, the sequelae caused by congestion will also appear. Due to the chaos of shipping schedule caused by congested ships, a large number of blank flights may appear on the European line. At the same time, a large number of ships queue up to cross the river, and the continuous impact will be lengthened. European ports will also lead to new congestion due to the concentration of a large number of ships. Slow turnover will also lead to the recurrence of shortage. In addition, the loading rate of the European line has obviously picked up in the near future, and even burst the position, so it will be a high probability event for the European line price to stop falling and pick up. The rising price of European line will produce siphon effect similar to that of American line, which will drive the freight rate of other routes up.

On Friday, shipping stocks rallied. COSCO Haikong, A-share, rose more than 8%, followed by Ningbo shipping, Zhonggu logistics, Taiwan Strait shares and China Merchants shipping; COSCO Haikong, Hong Kong stock, rose more than 7%.

Suez Canal blockage continues! Shipping price and global oil price soaring

JPMorgan pointed out that despite the increase in fuel costs due to longer diversions and increased congestion, they expect Asian shipping companies' spot freight rates to rise. This will not damage the profitability of such companies, but will have a positive impact on their profits. The bank said there was an upward risk in shipping rates.

Influence the global supply chain! Toilet paper, coffee, etc. may be in short supply

In addition to affecting energy transportation, ship blockage will also affect electronic products, daily necessities, food and other materials closely related to everyone.

According to business insider, the closure of the canal will cost about $400 million an hour. Among them, the container full of instant coffee is stuck on the road, which is expected to affect the coffee supply soon. Furniture is also hard to get rid of the impact, many customers began to respond that the delivery date of their ordered furniture has been delayed.

The analysis said that if the ship is not released as soon as possible, the supply of goods will continue to be in short supply, the cost of daily necessities will rise, and the corresponding prices will also rise, "which will basically affect the price of anything you see in the store.".

What's more, the risk of global tissue shortage will rise again because pulp transportation may be blocked. Suzano of Brazil, the world's largest producer of toilet paper and wood pulp, said the current global container crisis may cause supply barriers and lead to a shortage of toilet paper, Fox News reported on the 25th. The company mainly uses bulk carriers to transport wood pulp, but with the surge in demand for container ships, cargo loading pressure increases, resulting in delivery delay. If the producers don't have enough stock, the disruption of the pulp trade will eventually affect the supply of toilet paper, said sherka, the company's chief executive.

According to shipping data and Lloyd's, a news company, the trade losses caused by the blockage of the Suez canal are about $400 million an hour. John Glen, an economist with the Chartered Institute of purchasing and supply, pointed out on March 25 local time that if the canal is closed for too long, it may seriously damage the supply chain in the relevant regions.

Japanese shipowners apologize, or need to pay more than 900 million yuan

The Japanese shipowner of "Changci" has apologized for the impact of the accident on Global trade.

The owner and owner of the ship, Zhengrong steamship Co., from Ehime Prefecture, Japan, said they were trying to solve the problem as soon as possible, but it proved very difficult to move the ship out.

"We are working with local authorities and Bernhard Schulte Shipmanagement to try to get the CZ floating, but we are facing great difficulties," Zhengrong said in a statement on Thursday. We sincerely apologize for the great concern we have caused to the ships sailing on and planning to pass through the Suez Canal and their related parties. "

According to the survey of Allianz's global enterprise and special services division (AGCs), stranding is not a rare phenomenon, but the most common cause of canal shipping accidents. There have been 25 accidents in the past 10 years.

But the size of the accident was unusual. Some shipping lawyers believe that this may become the world's largest container ship claims disaster. A series of major insurance claims include Shoei Kisen, a Japanese shipowner KK and its insurance company may face claims from the Suez Canal Authority, as well as claims for loss of revenue from ships whose passage has been disturbed or interrupted; the amount of compensation for hull and mechanical damage of the container ship alone may reach US $100 million to US $140 million (about RMB 910 million); and the owner of the cargo carried by the affected ship may also claim for damage or delay in delivery Claims, etc.

Rahul Khanna, head of global marine risk consulting at AGCs, said the Canal Authority was also very likely to impose fines on shipowners and claim damages caused by the canal.